Table 10 Future likelihood of firearm possession and use in a situation where political violence is perceived as justified
Thinking now about the future and all the changes it might bring, how likely is it that you will use a gun in any of the following ways in the next few years—in a situation where you think force or violence is justified to advance an important political objective? | 2022 Respondents (n= 12,947) | 2023 Respondents (n=9385) | 2024 Respondents (n=8896) | Mean Difference, * 2022-2023 | Mean Difference, * 2023-2024 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) Mean score (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) Mean score (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) Mean score (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted mean (95% CI) Mean score (95% CI) | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) Mean score (95% CI) | |
I will be armed with a gun. | ||||||||||
Not likely (1) | 10,408 | 80.6 (79.7, 81.5) | 6832 | 75.9 (74.7, 77.1) | 6688 | 77.4 (76.2, 78.6) | 9385 | − 5.6 (− 6.9, − 4.4) | 8185 | 1.0 (− 0.3, 2.3) |
Somewhat likely (2) | 1331 | 10.5 (9.8, 11.3) | 1268 | 12.8 (11.9, 13.8) | 1108 | 11.5 (10.6, 12.4) | 9385 | 2.7 (1.6, 3.8) | 8185 | − 1.4 (− 2.6, − 0.2) |
Very or extremely likely (3) | 1070 | 7.4 (6.9, 8.0) | 1140 | 9.0 (8.3, 9.8) | 954 | 8.8 (8.0, 9.6) | 9385 | 2.2 (1.4, 3.0) | 8185 | 0.1 (− 0.8, 1.0) |
Non-response | 138 | 1.4 (1.1, 1.7) | 145 | 2.2 (1.8, 2.7) | 146 | 2.3 (1.9, 2.9) | 9385 | 0.7 (0.2, 1.2) | 8185 | 0.3 (− 0.3, 0.8) |
Item score† | 12,809 | 1.26 (1.24, 1.27) | 9240 | 1.32 (1.30, 1.33) | 8750 | 1.30 (1.28, 1.31) | 9181 | 0.076 (0.059, 0.094) | 7984 | − 0.011 (− 0.029, 0.008) |
I will carry a gun openly, so that people know I am armed. | ||||||||||
Not likely (1) | 11,559 | 88.9 (88.2, 89.7) | 7992 | 85.6 (84.6, 86.6) | 7701 | 86.3 (85.2, 87.3) | 9385 | − 4.1 (− 5.2, − 3.0) | 8185 | 0.3 (− 0.8, 1.4) |
Somewhat likely (2) | 751 | 5.6 (5.1, 6.1) | 787 | 7.6 (6.8, 8.4) | 659 | 6.9 (6.2, 7.6) | 9385 | 2.4 (1.5, 3.2) | 8185 | − 0.8 (− 1.8, 0.1) |
Very or extremely likely (3) | 489 | 3.9 (3.5, 4.4) | 451 | 4.4 (3.8, 5.0) | 390 | 4.4 (3.8, 5.1) | 9385 | 0.9 (0.2, 1.6) | 8185 | 0.4 (− 0.4, 1.1) |
Non-response | 148 | 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) | 155 | 2.4 (1.9, 2.9) | 146 | 2.4 (2.0, 3.0) | 9385 | 0.8 (0.3, 1.3) | 8185 | 0.2 (− 0.3, 0.7) |
Item score† | 12,799 | 1.14 (1.13, 1.15) | 9230 | 1.17 (1.15, 1.18) | 8750 | 1.16 (1.15, 1.18) | 9162 | 0.045 (0.030, 0.060) | 7980 | 0.001 (− 0.015, 0.016) |
I will threaten someone with a gun. | ||||||||||
Not likely (1) | 12,570 | 96.3 (95.8, 96.7) | 8971 | 93.9 (93.1, 94.7) | 8498 | 94.0 (93.2, 94.7) | 9385 | − 2.2 (− 3.0, − 1.4) | 8185 | − 0.2 (− 1.0, 0.7) |
Somewhat likely (2) | 148 | 1.3 (1.0, 1.6) | 168 | 2.3 (1.8, 2.8) | 165 | 2.2 (1.8, 2.7) | 9385 | 1.0 (0.4, 1.5) | 8185 | 0.0 (− 0.6, 0.6) |
Very or extremely likely (3) | 83 | 0.9 (0.7, 1.2) | 101 | 1.6 (1.2, 2.1) | 89 | 1.5 (1.1, 2.0) | 9385 | 0.6 (0.2, 1.1) | 8185 | − 0.1 (− 0.5, 0.4) |
Non-response | 146 | 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) | 145 | 2.2 (1.7, 2.7) | 144 | 2.3 (1.9, 2.8) | 9385 | 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) | 8185 | 0.2 (− 0.3, 0.7) |
Item score† | 12,801 | 1.03 (1.03, 1.04) | 9240 | 1.06 (1.05, 1.07) | 8752 | 1.05 (1.04, 1.06) | 9172 | 0.024 (0.014, 0.034) | 7986 | − 0.002 (− 0.012, 0.008) |
I will shoot someone with a gun. | ||||||||||
Not likely (1) | 12,372 | 94.8 (94.3, 95.4) | 8766 | 92.3 (91.5, 93.2) | 8372 | 92.9 (92.0, 93.6) | 9385 | − 2.5 (− 3.4, − 1.6) | 8185 | 0.2 (− 0.7, 1.1) |
Somewhat likely (2) | 302 | 2.6 (2.2, 2.9) | 333 | 3.7 (3.1, 4.3) | 264 | 3.2 (2.7, 3.7) | 9385 | 1.3 (0.6, 2.0) | 8185 | − 0.4 (− 1.1, 0.3) |
Very or extremely likely (3) | 132 | 1.1 (0.9, 1.4) | 146 | 1.8 (1.4, 2.2) | 120 | 1.7 (1.3, 2.2) | 9385 | 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) | 8185 | − 0.1 (− 0.6, 0.4) |
Non-response | 141 | 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) | 140 | 2.2 (1.7, 2.6) | 140 | 2.3 (1.9, 2.8) | 9385 | 0.6 (0.1, 1.1) | 8185 | 0.3 (− 0.3, 0.8) |
Item score† | 12,806 | 1.05 (1.04, 1.06) | 9245 | 1.07 (1.06, 1.08) | 8756 | 1.07 (1.06, 1.08) | 9179 | 0.027 (0.016, 0.038) | 7993 | − 0.005 (− 0.017, 0.006) |